Regional Cycles

Decades of outperformance

The charts show how over the past 40 years, each decade has been dominated by a regional equity market, whose outperformance spanned almost the full period.

  • Japan, Europe and Emerging markets (EM) outperformed in the 80’s, 90’s and 00’s, respectively. The U.S. has been outperforming over the past decade.

Drivers of equity market cycles

Demographics and easy Central Bank policies are necessary but not sufficient conditions. In relative terms, it can be argued that specific circumstances drive the actual outperformances.

  • Japan experienced financial liberalization, coupled with the Plaza Accord which unleashed a far too easy monetary policy and increasing internal demand.
  • Europe benefited from the economic integration process that led to the Euro.
  • Globalization and modernization drove massive investment flows into EM.
  • The U.S. managed to come out of the great financial crisis with easier policies and took the global technological lead, propelling the growth of the past decade.

Who’s next?

As we enter a new decade, it may be time for another regional rotation. But for this to happen, a catalyst for change and a driver boosting outperformance are needed.

  • Has the Covid-19 crisis potentially reshuffled the cards?
  • Will it drive to a change in leadership? Who will benefit?

This article is available to logged users.
Sign in or request a login.


Disclaimer

This report has been produced by the organizational unit responsible for investment research (Research unit) of atonra Partners and sent to you by the company sales representatives.

As an internationally active company, atonra Partners SA may be subject to a number of provisions in drawing up and distributing its investment research documents. These regulations include the Directives on the Independence of Financial Research issued by the Swiss Bankers Association. Although atonra Partners SA believes that the information provided in this document is based on reliable sources, it cannot assume responsibility for the quality, correctness, timeliness or completeness of the information contained in this report.

The information contained in these publications is exclusively intended for a client base consisting of professionals or qualified investors. It is sent to you by way of information and cannot be divulged to a third party without the prior consent of atonra Partners. While all reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the information contained is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such.

Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. Any indices cited herein are provided only as examples of general market performance and no index is directly comparable to the past or future performance of the Certificate.

It should not be assumed that the Certificate will invest in any specific securities that comprise any index, nor should it be understood to mean that there is a correlation between the Certificate’s returns and any index returns.

Any material provided to you is intended only for discussion purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing inany securities.


Contact