Goodbye Mobile Payments, hello Stablecoins!

Why now

2025 marks an inflection point for stablecoins. After years of regulatory uncertainty, the pieces are falling into place for mass institutional adoption.

The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, establishes the first comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins. It requires full reserve backing, monthly disclosures, and federal or state licensing. Europe's MiCA regulation provides comparable clarity. Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan are implementing their own frameworks. For the first time, banks and payment companies have clear rules to operate.

The response has been immediate. Circle Internet Group, issuer of the USDC stablecoin, went public in June 2025, tripling on its first day of trading. Stripe completed its $1.1bn acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure provider Bridge in February 2025, its largest acquisition ever. PayPal is rolling out PYUSD to 20mn merchants. Visa has expanded stablecoin settlement to four stablecoins, reaching a $2.5bn annualized settlement volume. Mastercard has enabled stablecoins across 150mn merchant locations worldwide.

Perhaps most significantly, the largest U.S. banks are no longer watching from the sidelines. JPMorgan, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc, and Wells Fargo & Co are in discussions to launch a joint stablecoin. In parallel, a consortium of ten global banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc and UBS Group AG, announced plans to develop a G7-currency stablecoin on public blockchains.

This is not crypto speculation. This is the largest financial institutions in the world recognizing that stablecoins are becoming essential infrastructure. The question is no longer whether stablecoins will be adopted, but who will capture the value as they scale.

Our Track Record

When we launched Mobile Payments in April 2014, we were the first to offer a dedicated thematic strategy in this space. At the time, many dismissed our focus on mobile wallets and emerging market payment adoption as premature. M-Pesa in Kenya had already shown that mobile phones could replace banks for tens of millions of people. We believed this was the beginning of a transformation, not a curiosity.

That conviction proved correct. From inception through its peak in February 2021, the strategy delivered a +300% return (net of management and performance fees). We outperformed the most relevant benchmarks over the same period (e.g., +90% for the MSCI ACWI and +289% for the Nasdaq-100).

Equally important, we recognized when the cycle had peaked. When growth normalized, margins compressed, and valuations stretched, we advised clients to reduce exposure. The subsequent years have confirmed that assessment: the mobile payments industry has consolidated and commoditized.

With stablecoins, we’re seeing the same pattern that played out with mobile payments a decade ago: a niche technology quietly turning into essential infrastructure. We were first in 2014. We are first again in 2025.

The Stablecoin Opportunity

Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to traditional currencies, most commonly the U.S. dollar. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, they combine the stability of fiat money with the efficiency of blockchain: instant settlement, 24/7 availability, programmability, and near-zero transaction costs.

The scale is already remarkable. The stablecoin market surpassed $300bn in capitalization in late 2025, up from $28bn in December 2020, a tenfold increase in five years. In parallel, the monthly on-chain transactions have exceeded $1tn in each of the last three months.

Use Cases Expanding

As the stablecoin infrastructure is implemented and large players integrate it, more and more use cases will become mainstream:

• Today: Cross-border payments, remittances, merchant payouts, and treasury management.
• Near-term: E-commerce checkout, payroll, and B2B settlement.
• Long-term: Asset tokenization, programmable commerce, and machine-to-machine payments: Stablecoins are designed for software, not humans.

Market Projections

We project the supply of stablecoins to reach $2tn by 2030. This would imply a substantial growth (CAGR of 46%). Other forecasts range from conservative to aggressive. JPMorgan projects $500bn by 2028 (CAGR of 18%), Standard Chartered $1.9tn by 2028 (CAGR of 57%), while Citi sees it in 2030 between $900bn (bear case, CAGR of 24%), $1.9tn (base case, CAGR of 44%) and $4tn (bull case, CAGR of 67%). Even the conservative estimates imply significant value creation for the companies building this infrastructure.

Portfolio Positioning

The strategy will hold focused positions across the stablecoin value chain. The investment universe includes issuers such as Circle Internet Group, infrastructure providers and exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood, and the technology enablers developing and operating these rails. We may also invest in payment companies that integrate stablecoin capabilities, whether by issuing their own tokens or embedding stablecoin settlement capabilities.

We apply the same conviction-driven approach that has characterized AtonRâ strategies since 2014: focused positions in companies with structural growth exposure, rigorous fundamental analysis, and active management. We have a dedicated financial analyst focused on fintech, blockchain, and payment themes, supported by the full research capabilities of AtonRâ Partners.

Risks

Investors should understand the key risks associated with this strategy, including:

• Regulatory risk: While regulatory frameworks are emerging, implementation details remain uncertain. The GENIUS Act's full provisions take effect gradually until July 2028. Future regulations could impose additional requirements or favor incumbent banks over crypto-native companies.
• Issuer risk: Stablecoin stability depends on the reserves backing them. The 2023 USDC depeg following Silicon Valley Bank's collapse demonstrated this vulnerability. Tether, which controls 60% of the market, remains less transparent than fully-compliant alternatives.
• Technology risk: Blockchain networks can experience congestion, smart contract vulnerabilities, or infrastructure failures. Security breaches at exchanges or custodians could result in losses and hinder the adoption process.
• Rising yields: Beyond the impact on the multiples of the listed companies, higher interest rates may slow down the adoption of stablecoins, especially for non-interest-bearing tokens. Stablecoin distributors may need to rely on incentives and rewards to mitigate this potential headwind.

Timing and Launch

The AtonRâ Stablecoins strategy launches in December 2025. Investors in the AtonRâ Mobile Payments products will automatically be exposed to the new strategy.

We believe the next two to three years represent a critical window. The regulatory framework is in place. Infrastructure is being built. Major institutions are committing capital. But the market has not yet fully priced in what is coming.

Consider the parallel to mobile payments. When we launched in April 2014, the theme was dismissed as early. By 2021, mobile payments had become consensus, and the majority of returns had already been captured. Those who waited until the opportunity was obvious missed the cycle.

Stablecoins today are where mobile payments were in 2014. The technology works. The use cases are proven. Institutional adoption is beginning. But the theme has not yet become consensus. This is where excess returns are generated.

As we release our year-end outlooks, we will publish a detailed research note on the stablecoin opportunity, including our full investment thesis and portfolio positioning. In the meantime, we encourage investors to contact us to discuss how this strategy fits within their broader allocation.

Mobile Payments was our bet on the future in 2014. That future arrived, and we delivered +300% before the cycle peaked. Stablecoins are our bet for the next decade. We intend to lead the way once again.