Get ready for a strong console cycle

Bottom line:

The new console cycle begins now, with Sony and Microsoft unleashing a new upgraded console generation. This will be a strong and recurring source of growth for both console players and semiconductor companies involved in memory, CPU/GPU, and electronics.

New consoles are expected to capture a third of the total Video Game Industry, notably, thanks to switching to AMD processors and graphic units. Other companies to benefit from the upcoming cycle are memory producers such as Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix.

Gaming Console Market Set For A Leap

Strong growth is expected from gaming consoles

The next console cycle begins in 2020 with Sony and Microsoft launching their new PlayStation 5 (PS5) and XBOX X. Driven by dramatic spec-upgrade, consoles are expected to represent >30% of the videogame industry by 2025.

  • The console market is set to grow from $50bn to $75bn by 2025, and the whole gaming industry (PC, Mobile, Consoles) to reach $250bn, up from $152bn in 2019.
  • Compared to the previous versions, new iterations will offer 50% more CPU’s clock speed, 2x graphic power, much higher bandwidth, and faster memory support.

Semiconductors are to profit from more powerful and affordable consoles

Spec-upgrades make consoles an essential option for gamers and will represent a strong source of growth for supply chain players involved in high-performance chip and memory production.

  • 8k resolution and ray-tracing (realistic lighting/reflection effects) are impossible to experience elsewhere at the console price point, i.e., the cheapest desktop video card capable of ray tracing costs 80% of the console price.
  • After the initial delay caused by COVID-19, semiconductors will continue along the path of strong revenue growth with a five-year CAGR of 16% supported by constant recurring demand.

AMD to benefit the most

With 20% of sales coming from the semi-custom chip business, AMD will strongly benefit from the upcoming console cycle. Both PS5 and XBOX will upgrade to the AMD Ryzen CPUs and AMD Navi GPUs.

  • AMD dollar revenue per console is expected to be a 75% step up from last year’s shipments for the PS4.
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AMD CPUs And GPUs Are Essential For Gaming

AMD wins the race

Choosing the right CPU (Central Processing Unit) is essential for a console manufacturer to ensure a successful life span for its products. While in previous cycles Microsoft and Sony relied on different suppliers, this cycle AMD takes it all.

  • AMD offers a complete package of CPUs and GPUs, both compatible and optimized to work together for the best gaming performances.

Technological leadership pays off 

AMD proved itself as the leader of CPUs for gaming. The company triumphs in CPU speed and powerful core architecture - key factors for analyzing CPU performance.

  • AMD Zen 2 CPU, designed on the 3rd generation AMD’s Ryzen platform, is an eight-core architecture designed on the new 7nm node.
  • Its ultra-high clock speed (+50% improvement versus the previous generation) is essential to support extremely high refresh rates present in multiplayer gaming.

Cross-selling GPUs

AMD is certainly a winner of the upcoming console cycle as no competitor can match the performance of its combined offer for both CPUs and GPUs for a similar price.

  • AMD GPU offers the performance of 9,2 teraflops for PS5 (5x improvement over PS4) and 12 teraflops for XBOX coupled with a bandwidth of 512 GB/s and faster GDDR6 memory.
  • Both PS5 and Xbox series X consoles will come with an AMD Radeon-based GPU that will have a performance 200% higher than PS4 Pro and 100% higher than XBOX One X.
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Graphic And Storage Memory Are Key

Graphic memory is a crucial enabler of high-performance gaming

The new generation of consoles will also house a new graphics memory standard – the GDDR6. Evolution of resolution, more detailed visual effects, and multi-display configuration increase dependence on high-memory capacity and memory bandwidth.

  • Graphic Double Data Rate (GDDR) memory is used to store data that needs to be quickly accessible by the CPUs and GPUs to be processed during gaming.
  • GDDR6 offers a higher bandwidth per-pin at lower operating voltages over GDDR5.

In 2020 play the memory and semiconductor industry

The long-awaited console release will boost sales not only for AMD but also for other major memory suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, while Western Digital will deliver ultrafast hard drives.

  • Graphics DRAM production has remained concentrated in the hands of the three mentioned leaders, who have already announced their GDDR6 solutions.
  • Samsung remains the industry leader with more than 50% market share in graphic-DRAM, while Micron expanded from 8% in 2014 to 34% in 2019.

From memory abundance to scarcity

After having been in oversupply during 2018-19, the graphic-DRAM industry is moving towards an undersupplied environment starting in Q2 2020.

  • Expectations are for a 6% YoY growth for the graphic-DRAM industry over the next five years, with a remarkable 18% GDDR6 growth projected for Micron in 2021.
Click the image to enlarge
Click the image to enlarge

Catalysts

  • Growing global audience. Video gaming is becoming more engaging than ever. Boosted by social distancing, users are spending, on average, 51 minutes daily on games, and the worldwide gamer population is reaching 400mn people. This lasting trend would significantly boost console sales.
  • E-Sports. Growing consistently at 40% YoY Esports revenues have attracted millions of investments into the gaming industry. While many competitions are PC based, consoles are gaining a considerable e-sports share and solidifying their position in the market.
  • Continuing support. Typically, 2-3 years following the release, consoles receive a small aesthetic and hardware upgrade, that defines how long the cycle will be. Sales would be boosted, and the current lifespan will be prolonged if the upgrade will be judged favorably by consumers.

Risks

  • Weak console demand. There is no denying that mobile gaming is gaining traction among consumers, mainly due to price and convenience. If consumers decide that gaming consoles are incorrectly priced or do not offer any advantage, this may be the last console generation.
  • Faster than expected innovation. The usual lifespan of consoles is 5-7 years, during which they stay viable in terms of performance. If CPUs and GPUs improve exponentially faster than predicted, the current cycle could be short-lived and shake consumers’ confidence in the console market.
  • Uncomfortable limitations. It would be detrimental to console sales if to keep prices “under control” users find too much performance limitation upon the release day in 2020.

Sources:
Newzoo, AtonRâ Partners, Xbox, Sony, AMD, AtonRa Partners, DRAM Market Again Saw Record High Revenue in 2Q18 but Prices Are Approaching Their Peaks, NAND Flash to Lead All Others As IC Market Growth Returns in 2020, AtonRâ Partners

Companies mentioned in this article:
AMD (AMD US), Micron (MU US), Microsoft (MSFT US), Samsung (005930 SE), Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Sony (6758 JP)

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